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, by Adam Tooze
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Product details
File Size: 22244 KB
Print Length: 688 pages
Publisher: Penguin (August 2, 2018)
Publication Date: August 2, 2018
Language: English
ASIN: B079NT75YZ
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Columbia history professor Adam Tooze, an authority on the inter-war years, has offered up an authoritative history of the financial crises and their aftermath that have beset the world since 2008. He integrates economics, the plumbing of the interbank financial system and the politics of the major players in how and why the financial crisis of 2008 developed and the course of the very uneven recovery that followed. I must note that Tooze has some very clear biases in that he views the history through a social democratic prism and is very critical of the congressional Republican caucus and the go slow policies of the European Central Bank under Trichet. To him the banks got bailed out while millions of people suffered as collateral damage from a crisis that was largely made by the financial system. His view may very well be correct, but many readers might differ. Simply put, to save the economy policy makers had to stop the bleeding.He starts off with the hot topic of 2005; the need for fiscal consolidation in the United States. Aside from a few dissidents, most economists saw the need for the U.S. to close its fiscal deficit and did not see the structural crisis that was developing underneath them. Although he does mention Hyman Minsky a few times in the book, he leaves out Minsky’s most important insight that “stability leads to instability†as market participants are lulled into a false sense of security. It therefore was against the backdrop of the “great moderation†that the crisis began. And it was the seemingly calm environment that lulled all too many regulators to sleep.The underbelly of the financial system was and still is in many respects is the wholesale funding system where too many banks are largely funded in repo and commercial paper markets. This mismatch was exacerbated by the use of asset-backed commercial paper to fund long term mortgage securities. It was problems in that market that triggered the crisis in August 2007.The crisis explodes when Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy in September 2008. In Tooze’s view the decision to let Lehman fail was political, not economic. After that the gates of hell are opened causing the Bush Administration and the Federal Reserve to ask for $750 billion dollar TARP bailout of the major banks. It was in the Congressional fight over this appropriation where Tooze believes the split in the Republican Party between the business conservative and social populist wing hardens. We are living with that through this day. The TARP program passes with Democratic votes. Tooze also notes that there was great continuity between the Bush and early Obama policies with respect to the banks and auto bailout. Recall that in late 2008 and early 2009 nationalization of the banks was on the table. Tooze also correctly notes that the major beneficiary of the TARP program was Citicorp, the most exposed U.S. bank to the wholesale funding system.Concurrent with TARP the Bernanke Fed embarks on its first quantitative easing program where it buys up not only treasuries, but mortgage backed securities as well. It was with the latter Europe’s banks were bailed out. Half of the first QE went to bail out Europe’s troubled banks. When combined the dollar swap lines with QE, Europe’s central banks essentially became branches of the Fed. Now here is a problem. Where in the Federal Reserve Act does it say that the Fed is the central bank to the world? To some it maybe a stretch.Tooze applauds Obama’s stimulus policy but rightly says it was too small. There should have been more infrastructure in it. To my view there could have been more infrastructure if only Obama was willing to deal with the Republicans by offering to waive environmental reviews and prevailing wage rules. He never tried for fear of offending his labor and environmental constituencies. Tooze also gives great credit to China with it all out monetary and fiscal policies. That triggered a revival in the energy and natural resource economies of Australia and Brazil thereby helping global recovery.He then turns to the slow responses in Europe and the political wrangling over the tragedy that was to befall Greece. It came down to the power of Angela Merkel and her unwillingness to have the frugal German taxpayer subsidize the profligate Greeks. As they say “all politics is localâ€. The logjam in Europe doesn’t really break until Mario Draghi makes an off-the-cuff remark at a London speech in July 2012 by saying the ECB will do “whatever it takes†to engender European recovery.As a byproduct of bailing out the banks and failing to directly help the average citizen a rash of populism, mostly of the rightwing variety, breaks out all over leading to Brexit, Orban in Hungary, a stronger rightwing in Germany and, of course, Donald Trump. But to me it wasn’t only banking policy that created this. The huge surge in immigration into Europe has a lot more to do with it. Tooze under-rates this factor. He also under-rates the risk of having a monetary policy that is too easy and too long. The same type of Minsky risk discussed earlier is now present in the global economy: witness Turkey, for example. Thus it is too early to tell whether or not the all-out monetary policy of the past decade will be judged a success from the vantage point of 2030.Adam Tooze has written an important book and I view it as must read for a serious lay reader to get a better understanding of the economic and political policies of the past decade.
This is not a terrible book. The chronology is good as is the analysis of international relations and international organizations. The author is especially good at the interlinking of great power relations and the financial crisis. He also has the best single account I have seen of how Russia became estranged from Europe and the US. He is actually capable of seeing the world from Moscow's POV instead of repeating sterile 1980's tropes substituting Putin for the old SU. However, he is hopeless on domestic politics. I could say especially US but that is only because the US and the dollar have such an outsized place in early 21st century finance. His POV is an ACELA corridor mandarin whining about the unwashed rubes in Flyover Country. He had the same blinders in his prior book on the post-WW1 period. Representative democracy requires the technocratic elites to actually explain and sell their policies. A key example is his blaming the incoming Trump administration for dumping the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This ignores two years of campaigning where first Bernie, then Donald and finally Hillary all repudiated the Treaty. To have either of the two possible presidents sign it anyway would have been yet another elite technocratic betrayal of the actual voters. The author seems capable of seeing this democracy deficit, of parliaments essentially told to shut up and bark like trained seals, as regards the EU's treatment of the Club Med countries. Yet when it comes to the US, UK, Germany etc. the voters are to be ignored because there are technocratic reasons why there is no other choice. To advocate that passes from history to political advocacy. It also should be stated up front and discussed instead of dismissed with snide comments about people not fit to govern.
“Whereas since the 1970s the incessant mantra of the spokespeople of the financial industry had been free markets and light touch regulation, what they were now demanding was the mobilization of all of the resources of the state to save society’s financial infrastructure from a threat of systemic implosion, a threat they likened to a military emergency.†(Loc. 3172-3174)Adam Tooze takes the well know Financial Crisis of 2007-08 through its full history of international ramifications and brings it up to the present with the question of whether the large organizations, structures and processes on the one hand; decision, debate, argument and action on the other that managed to fall into place in that crisis period in this and many other countries will develop if needed again. “The political in “political economy†demands to be taken seriously.†(Loc. 11694). That he does.Tooze is an Economic Historian and Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World is a wonderfully rich enquiry into causes and effects of the Financial Crisis and how the failing of poorly managed greed motivated practices of a few financial institutions, and their subprime mortgagees, tumbled economies in the developed and developing world, causing events that matched the Great Depression’s dislocation and could have matched its duration, springing from world wide money markets “interlocking matrix†of corporate balance sheets— bank to bank.†A warning he is not kind to existing political beings, the Republican Party in particular “…to judge by the record of the last ten years, it is incapable of legislating or cooperating effectively in government.†(Loc.11704) His criticism is, in fairness, based on technical management grounds, and he does find fault as well with the inner core of the Obama advisors and their primary concerns for the financial sectors well being, rather than nationwide happenings where homes and incomes disappeared.This reviewer’s favorite (not mentioned by Tooze) is the early 2009 comment of Larry Sumners when Christina D. Romer, the chairwoman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and leading authority on the Great Depression saw a need for $1.8 trillion stimulus package, “What have you been smoking?â€Sumners, Geithner, and Orszag, who favored transferring $700 billion to the banks to offset possible bank failures and such -- became policy. Tooze mentions that by 2012 Sumners was concerned by the slowness of the U.S. economy’s recovery taking, as it did, 8 years to reach 2008 levels of employment.Can an Economic History be an exciting read? Tooze gives us over 700 pages of just that, but much will be familiar as reported news and may be skimmed, and some of the Fed’s expanded international roles very dense in content. His strength is the knowledge of what could have happened, had solutions not been found, and how agreements were reached out of public sight.“… the world economy is not run by medium-sized … entrepreneurs but by a few thousand massive corporations, with interlocking shareholdings controlled by a tiny group of asset managers. (Loc.418-419).Add wily politicians and hard driven bankers EU Ukraine and China you have an adventure.Corporate control is not new -- rich descriptions of its inner connections are.Adam Tooze does this well a reference work for years to come.5 stars
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